Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by Ian_C on Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:33 pm

boxofficemojo.com has finally closed the run for Jurassic World.  Final tally?  $652,270,625.  That's #3 all time domestically, a whole $6 million behind Titanic.  More impressive is #3 all time world wide, where it ends at $1.67 BILLION.

Those are the numbers TFA needs to become #1 of the year, and at least that just to crack the top 3 all time.

I've been blasted everywhere I have posted this, but I think TFA will be settling for #2 domestically on the year, and will be extremely fortunate to hit top 5 worldwide.  

My reasons?

I predict a solid $550-$600 million total domestic take here in North America.  Worldwide, it'll be not as close. I looked at all 6 films in the series. The OT's worldwide take was on average about 45% of the grand total compared to the North American take. Can't count that - overseas box office has changed dramatically. The PT averaged only about 53% of the grand total from non North American box office. It's more reasonable to assume the new movies will fall closer in line to that. Now, there was an insane build to TPM, about the same as this. I'd say TPM had more, due to 16 years between movies and no backlash on the Saga due to perceptions of how the PT would be seen. Not everyone is going to rush to see this due to that factor and some people just not happy with Disney running the show, plus Lucas purists like myself. You also can't discount the effect a December release will have on the total, as it won't be able to rely on daytime or even weeknight showings the way a summer movie can. Anyway, I'm using TPM because it is the #1 worldwide grossing SW movie (unadjusted), and was relatively recent to compare with. TPM made $474 million at the North American box office - including a re-release. That translates to $753 million when adjusted for inflation. Yes, that's higher than my estimated North American take, but let's say TFA matches that. The total is 46% of its worldwide take. So, if we assume international vs North American remains in a similar ratio, and no need to assume otherwise with it being consistent across the entire saga, the grand total, with 54% coming from international box office. That means, if it can even match TPM totals (including its re-release numbers), its worldwide take will be about $1.636 billion. That means $883 million from the rest of the world. Don't get me wrong, that's huge - but it still doesn't beat $1.67 billion for Jurassic World. In other words, if the ratios of box office remain consistent as SW releases in the past, even if it beats JW by $100 million in North America, it'll still fail to catch JW for #3 all time worldwide, never mind Avatar's $2.8 billion unadjusted total.  The adjusted total for ANH only converts to $2.8 billion, so even the original, with over a year long run, and multiple re-releases, can't catch the adjusted take for Avatar.

As far as my domestic guess, there are multiple factors.  It's winter.  It'll have two weeks where it'll act like a summer movie with kids/adults home from school/work.  Then it's the real world, so matinees are going to suffer, as will weeknight showings.  Every year, the north eastern part of North America has weekends that are essentially lost due to extreme weather.  That'll cut into the take on at least a couple of weekends.  Disney isn't going to add any box office - it may actually detract from it, as anti-Disney people like myself are avoiding this movie like the plague.  People won't go see this because it's a Disney movie either - the SW name is too well known for Mighty Mouse to have any extra influence.  The timing is tough too.  Sure, it'll own December.  January through to March?  Not the best time for the movies traditionally, so a movie that's 1-3 months old is going to be losing numbers faster than a summer blockbuster, not to mention the summer movies that survive into fall have little competition, where TFA will be facing early summer movies as of the beginning of May.  Adding to its challenge is the fact it's opening on 3900 screens.  That's 300 LESS than Jurassic World, and 200 less than even The Avengers, so it's going to need a higher per screen average right from the get go just to match those two movies.

Then there's the big factor.  Will it be any good?  Last night, I found a massive synopsis that detailed pretty much the entire movie from start to finish.  Sure, easy to dismiss as fake - except this was supported by film images and sound bites all the way through it.  I read the whole thing, and while I am NOT going to give spoilers away here, I have reasons to believe there will be backlash.  Not at first, because it'll be a spectacle that many will love seeing it on the big screen, but once it sinks in, I strongly feel there will be a LOT of criticism.  For me, it just cemented my resolve to boycott it entirely.  It may break the opening weekend record, but I'm pretty convinced that's about the only record it's going to break.

I guess we're going to find out starting next weekend.

Ian
avatar
Ian_C
Sullust Samurai

Posts : 773
Join date : 2015-11-30
Yavin Honor : 2311
Age : 45
Location : Caledonia, On, Canada
Focus : Kenner Production

http://www.tantivexi.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by General Kahn on Sat Dec 12, 2015 12:15 am

Every last inch of me wants to ask you for the link to that synopsis..... but I feel I shouldn't spoil it for myself... but what if I die???

Send me the link.... no don't..... DO!!!! DON'T!!!! arrrrgggghhhhh tard
avatar
General Kahn
Sullust Samurai

Posts : 924
Join date : 2015-02-02
Yavin Honor : 2911
Age : 38
Location : Northern England
Focus : Luke Bespin

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by arohk on Sat Dec 12, 2015 5:27 am

Personally I am sure it will hit #1 before year end with all the hype that's been out and everyone snatching up tickets, most of the theaters here are sold out for the first week at least. Would I bet money on this maybe but I am a diehard fan so I am already swayed that it will hit number 1.
avatar
arohk
Outer Rim Ronin

Posts : 290
Join date : 2015-11-27
Yavin Honor : 1019
Location : Canada
Focus : started on a baggie collection and lil ledy

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by Ian_C on Sat Dec 12, 2015 5:47 am

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:Personally I am sure it will hit #1 before year end with all the hype that's been out and everyone snatching up tickets, most of the theaters here are sold out for the first week at least. Would I bet money on this maybe but I am a diehard fan so I am already swayed that it will hit number 1.

Are you suggesting it'll hit $652 MILLION in a whole 13 days?

There's optimism, and then there's lunacy. No offense, but NO movie will ever accomplish that. At least not for 40 years, when a movie ticket costs $85 a piece. Wink

Sold out first week means one week of crazy numbers. Weeks #2 and 3 will also be huge. After that, if it follows ANY blockbuster released in recent years, it'll fall off fairly quickly from there. If it isn't at $400 million by January 1, I doubt it'll even hit $600 million total. It's going to rely on repeat viewings, and while some fans will do that, from what I know of the plot, I don't think it's going to get as many repeats as people are expecting. Just being realistic - from my opinion.

Ian
avatar
Ian_C
Sullust Samurai

Posts : 773
Join date : 2015-11-30
Yavin Honor : 2311
Age : 45
Location : Caledonia, On, Canada
Focus : Kenner Production

http://www.tantivexi.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by arohk on Sat Dec 12, 2015 6:04 am

You also need to account for when movies are released most are out in the middle of the year so they have lots of time to get in the money for viewing. If they released Star Wars in April say it would have killed all movies coming out at that time. They put it out now so the other movies would have at least made a showing. It is also possible to make those figures in 3 weeks if it's shown worldwide.
avatar
arohk
Outer Rim Ronin

Posts : 290
Join date : 2015-11-27
Yavin Honor : 1019
Location : Canada
Focus : started on a baggie collection and lil ledy

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by ChristianC on Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:42 am

Pretty well-reasoned argument Ian. But my instincts tell me it will break all records. Even here in Holland you can't scratch your arse without seeing SW merchandise in a store window, TFA publicity posters etc etc. I've never seen hype like this. I'm excited but I'm sick to death of hearing about the new movie and to be honest it is SW overload for me. I miss the days when us SW fans felt that we were members of a special club....
avatar
ChristianC
Tatooine Taisho

Posts : 2299
Join date : 2015-02-24
Yavin Honor : 4885
Location : The Netherlands/Sydney
Focus : Luke Skywalker (all outfits) - MOC, loose variants and bootlegs

http://vintagestarwarscollectors.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by Ian_C on Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:01 am

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:I'm sick to death of hearing about the new movie and to be honest it is SW overload for me. I miss the days when us SW fans felt that we were members of a special club....

100% agreed with this, especially the part of feeling you were in some special, exclusive club.

I know I have been extremely pessimistic publicly about the new movie, and yes, I am a Lucas purist who never had any interest in a movie he didn't come up with as the main creative force.  But the onslaught of whored out merchandising, and some of the insane rambling from fanboys declaring it the best movie ever before even seeing it took me from a place of disinterest to outright hostility towards the new film.  I still hold the OT in the highest regard, even think the PT is unjustly criticized, and have no intention of leaving the hobby - but if I never saw a new piece of SW merchandise again, I'd be very happy.

Ian
avatar
Ian_C
Sullust Samurai

Posts : 773
Join date : 2015-11-30
Yavin Honor : 2311
Age : 45
Location : Caledonia, On, Canada
Focus : Kenner Production

http://www.tantivexi.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by ourchickenshack on Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:16 pm

I'm not much of a money figures kind of guy so it doesn't matter to me how much cash any movie brings in (unless they want to share the money with me lol! )

I have tried to avoid seeing more then the 1st couple of trailers because I hate spoilers so much and just like to be surprised by what I watch . A fantastic recent example was Tusk - I saw a preview for it that gave away the whole premise of the movie . The twisted turns the movie took would have been much more shocking if they wouldn't have been shown in a 2 minute preview Neutral

At the end of the day the only thing that will matter to me is if I like the movies - I have never judged success based on what others think What a Face

As a horror fan like yourself Ian , we know already that successful movies certainly are a matter of opinion and many movies in our genre are far from a financial success - but that doesn't keep me from loving them Twisted Evil
avatar
ourchickenshack
Hoth Hatamoto

Posts : 5143
Join date : 2015-02-21
Yavin Honor : 20177
Age : 47
Location : Oklahoma
Focus : Farceur Mollification

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by Mike_Z on Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:19 pm

Projected to reach $580 million in 10 days (by Sunday 12/27).

As for the records it has already broken, here's a recap that includes a few not included on Mojo's traditional record list, which you can find right here:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

   Largest Thursday Previews: $57 million*
   Previous Record: $43.5 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
   Global IMAX Opening Record: $48 million
   Previous Record: $44.1 million (Jurassic World)
   Domestic IMAX Opening Record: $30.1 million
   Previous Record: $20.9 million (Jurassic World)
   Largest Friday, Opening Day, Single Day: $119.1 million
   Previous Record: $91 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
   Largest Sunday: $60.5 million
   Previous Record: $57.2 million (Jurassic World)
   Largest Monday: $40.1 million
   Previous Record: $27.6 million (Spider-Man 2)
   Largest 4-Day Gross: $288 million
   Previous Record: $234.1 million (Jurassic World)
   Domestic Opening Weekend: $247.9 million
   Previous Record: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
   Worldwide Opening Weekend: $529 million / 4,134 theaters
   Previous Record: $524.9 million (Jurassic World)
   Highest Per Theater Average (Wide Release): $59,982
   Previous Record: $48,855 / 4,274 theaters (Jurassic World)
   Top Opening Theater Average (Wide Release): $59,982
   Previous Record: $48,855 / 4,274 theaters (Jurassic World)
   Top Opening Weekend for PG-13 Rated Film: $247.9 million
   Previous Record: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
   Top Holiday Opening Weekend**: $247.9 million
   Previous Record: $158 million (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
   Biggest Weekend Overall (Top 12 Gross): $305.5 million
   Previous Record: $266 million (June 12-14, 2015)
   Biggest December Weekend (Top 12 Gross): $305.5 million
   Previous Record: $259.9 million (Dec 25-27, 2009)
   December Single Day: $119.1 million
   Previous Record: $37.13 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
   Widest December Opening: 4,134 theaters
   Previous Record: 4,045 theaters (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
   December Opening Weekend: $247.9 million
   Previous Record: $84.62 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
   Fastest to $100 Million: 1 Day
   Previous Record: 2 Days (Jurassic World)
   Fastest to $250 Million: 4 Days
   Previous Record: 5 Days (Jurassic World)

* The Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 record included midnight only screenings while Force Awakens screenings began at 7 PM on Thursday and included Star Wars marathon ticket sales, tickets that were sold for as much as $59.99 each.
** Holiday is defined as the first Friday in November through New Year's week or weekend.
avatar
Mike_Z
Corellia Chugen

Posts : 2
Join date : 2015-11-30
Yavin Honor : 10

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by PAT-AT on Thu Dec 24, 2015 4:48 am

I can't believe it doesn't release in China until January 9th! Sucks for them, how do you not have it ruined by then with spoilers & reviews?
avatar
PAT-AT
Corellia Chugen

Posts : 18
Join date : 2015-11-28
Yavin Honor : 75
Age : 42
Location : Pennsylvania
Focus : Luke Skywalker & vintage plastic

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by arohk on Thu Dec 24, 2015 6:18 am

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:Personally I am sure it will hit #1 before year end with all the hype that's been out and everyone snatching up tickets, most of the theaters here are sold out for the first week at least. Would I bet money on this maybe but I am a diehard fan so I am already swayed that it will hit number 1.

Are you suggesting it'll hit $652 MILLION in a whole 13 days?

There's optimism, and then there's lunacy.  No offense, but NO movie will ever accomplish that.  At least not for 40 years, when a movie ticket costs $85 a piece. Wink

Sold out first week means one week of crazy numbers.  Weeks #2 and 3 will also be huge.  After that, if it follows ANY blockbuster released in recent years, it'll fall off fairly quickly from there.  If it isn't at $400 million by January 1, I doubt it'll even hit $600 million total.  It's going to rely on repeat viewings, and while some fans will do that, from what I know of the plot, I don't think it's going to get as many repeats as people are expecting.  Just being realistic - from my opinion.

Ian

Told you it would be at number 1 before the year was up, lunacy nope I just know how much people ware waiting for this moment, it was like Star Wars was happening for the first time again. Jurassic World was good but there are three generations of Star Wars fans there is no way a movie about over sized lizards is going to compete with that.
avatar
arohk
Outer Rim Ronin

Posts : 290
Join date : 2015-11-27
Yavin Honor : 1019
Location : Canada
Focus : started on a baggie collection and lil ledy

Back to top Go down

Re: Alright, TFA's Target Has Been Determined

Post by Ian_C on Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:09 pm

#1 before the end of the year? Still reaching it. It needs another $260 million in 6 days to do it ($220 million in 5 days if early Christmas Day reports of $40 are true). Good luck. Wink

I will admit it has done more in its first week than I expected, but even at $100 million ahead of JW in one week, if it stays at just $100 million ahead of JW's total gross, that's still not enough to beat Avatar. As I said before, the Christmas break is crucial to its final tally. It's doing its job on that front, but once school/work gets going again, it MAY fall off faster than other blockbusters, and that could potentially even hurt it catching JW, never mind Titanic and Avatar. Wink

Doing big business during the 2 week Christmas break was expected. Wink Let's see its longterm legs. Cool

Ian
avatar
Ian_C
Sullust Samurai

Posts : 773
Join date : 2015-11-30
Yavin Honor : 2311
Age : 45
Location : Caledonia, On, Canada
Focus : Kenner Production

http://www.tantivexi.com

Back to top Go down

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum